I was doing my morning exercises flipping channels when I came upon an exercise infomercial called “Perfect Booty”.  Having just finished reading $20 per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better by Christopher Steiner, I was very pleased to see that retailing is alive and well on T.V. at least.  A Perfect Booty for sale…only in America. 

But back to Steiner’s book.  The basic premise is that, as gas prices inevitably rise (assumption), the face and pace of America will change. People will adapt and become more fugal because everything that can be driven, created, or delivered by the use of petroleum will be, by the time gallon gas prices reach the teens,  de facto unaffordable, at least for everyone but the rich. So people will cozily huddle together in big cities, wiz around the subway system, take walks in the park, congregate at the band shell and join hands and sing Kumbaya. This really sounds good, He had me almost rooting for the end of oil.  I always wanted to be one of those little top-hatted men in a  French Impressionist painting walking by the lagoon in the park with a big-bootied parasol girl at my side on a sweet summer day. Que Seurat Seurat…

Alas, there is a downside to all this bliss. Gas prices will be up and Walmart will be down and out. No more cheap product from China; no more container ship bulk deliveries; no more plastic thingies; no more out-lying suburbs; and no more affordable flights to Florida; but that makes no difference because there will be no more people up North wanting to vacation in  the South (they will all have frozen to death because of the high cost of home heating oil). No McMansions, no McMuffins, no mac and cheese, the suburbs will become a vast wasteland of untended lawns, spalling circular drives, and not-so-great great rooms. Oh, the humanity…

All of this does not sound promising for retail stores and retail store designers. If Steiner is correct. When it becomes too expensive to move about in general, going to someplace (like a store) may not make economic sense. At that point it would be best to have the merchandise come to the buyer rather than the buyer go to the merchandise. Thus, unlike Walmart and Costco, Amazon should thrive. Stores will become electronic. You will be able to shop and buy on television or on the Internet. Wait a minute.  You can do that now.  Well you can’t replace the experience of trying on a new fake-fur coat to see how it fits or sliding an expensive diamond ring on your finger. So maybe the high-end stores will continue to exist, and maybe display-only, museum-like stores will become commonplace as funnels for Amazon and other websites. There may still be a need for store designers, in a shrinking market, to practice their trade in the coming oil-starved century.

But is possible, that oil prices will not rise exponentially, or that energy substitutes will be found. Or people will continue to shop for fun or by necessity because they have satisfied their need for balloons and ice cream cones at the Impressionist parks. In which case, life will go on. Stores will continue to be built. Designers will continue to design.

I think the only real fault in Steiner’s book can be found in his reliance in seeking the truth about the future from all-knowing architects who live (or wish they lived)  in high-rise condos overlooking Central Park.  These are not mall people, lifestyle shoppers, strip center users, discount store regulars, drive-thru diners, or even gasoline purchasers.  They walk a few blocks to work or take a cab on drizzly day. They grab a sushi lunch at a nearby chic café. They ride bikes in the park pulled by their puppies. I don’t think they are using the subway, strolling through the drug-war zones, or contemplating the real urban reality.  Urban living has its positives and negatives. Living in the city is a choice at this time. And in the future it will remain one of the choices, as will other lifestyles so long as there is a middle-class that longs for the toys, treasures, education and opportunities possessed by the elite. These aspiring American folk have always been the driving force behind the economy and as a result, they create need for retail stores.  Should $20 a gallon gasoline kill off retailing, this vital segment of the economy and an integral part of the middle-class dream, it is always comforting to know that we all can still enjoy a walk in Central Park…proud to be wearing our perfect booties.